US Elections and European Cohesion: Scenarios for Green Transitions and Transatlantic Climate Action

The Biden administration has been arguably the greenest in US history, but the polls show that there’s about a fifty-fifty chance that he will be followed by one of the least climate-friendly presidents. So this November, the choice at the ballot box will be a stark one for climate policies, with Kamala Harris likely to push for a green transition and climate justice, and Donald Trump expected to end climate measures and focus on energy supply and energy independence. 

Given this context, this paper explores how the EU and its member states could adjust their climate policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration positions on two key elements of global climate action and possible European responses along the variables of unity and decisiveness.